The rush to risk assets sparked a note of caution from Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists, who see a “tactical pullback” in the stock market as likely in the first quarter, at least for the S&P 500. The bank’s “Bull & Bear” indicator has given the highest “sell” signal since March 2013, according to a report Thursday from the bank.
Fund Flows
Equities saw the biggest inflow on record last week
Source: BofAML, EPFR Global
Investors poured $33.2 billion into stocks in the week to Jan. 24, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a research report, citing EPFR Global data. Actively managed equity portfolios, technology funds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities all enjoyed record inflows.
U.S. stocks saw $7 billion of inflows while the $4.6
Venezuela’s Officially in Default. It’s Meaningless to Investors
By Brendan Walsh
14 de noviembre de 2017 9:58 GMT-6
S&P cuts the sovereign’s credit rating after delayed payments
But most bond investors stand pat believing money on its way
Why Venezuela Is Getting Increasingly Desperate
Why Venezuela Is Getting Increasingly Desperate
Venezuela and its state oil company are now officially in default. Yet bondholders don’t really care.
For most of them, the declarations last night by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings only confirmed what they already know — PDVSA and the government are late on debt payments amid an unprecedented cash crunch and difficulties getting money through the chain of intermediaries. But what really matters to them is that government officials continue to insist that they’ll make good on their obligations and in fact seem to be making determined efforts to do so.
So while the default makes it possible for a group of aggrieved creditors to band together and demand immediate repayment of their bonds — a move referred to as acceleration — there’s little incentive for them to do so. Venezuela doesn’t have the money to pay all the principal back at once, and a move to accelerate would in reality only lead creditors to restructuring talks with the government or international lawsuits. Both of those options promise to be messy and drawn out. And so given how the government remains eager to pay — despite, it should be noted, its simultaneous, and confusing, claims that it wants to renegotiate the debt — most bondholders figure they’re better off being patient and waiting for delayed payments.
“If bondholders expect coupon payments, then they may refrain from acceleration,” Siobhan Morden, the head of Latin America fixed-income strategy at Nomura, wrote in a note today.
Investors in the credit-default swaps market have different incentives, and those that bought insurance against a default by Petroleos de Venezuela are eagerly awaiting a ruling from the International Swaps & Derivatives Association on whether the failure to make a complete principal payment Nov. 2 constitutes a credit event.
A positive ruling would trigger their insurance, enriching traders who bought default protection. It’s a small market, though, totaling just a net $250 million. PDVSA and the government’s foreign bond debt, about $60 billion, dwarfs that. And that amount is unaffected by the ISDA ruling on swaps.
— With assistance by Ben Bartenstein
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Diversificar inversiones: Crowdfunding la respuesta
¿Recuerdas decir “no pongas todos los huevos en una canasta”? Ese dicho también aplica para tus inversiones, y el crowdfunding inmobiliario puede ser la opción que te ayude a lograrlo.
Cuando hablamos de inversiones y oportunidades para hacer crecer nuestro dinero, un secreto de los grandes inversionistas es la diversificación. Es decir, poner nuestro dinero en diferentes tipos de inversiones para así disminuir el riesgo general. Es como el viejo dicho: “no pongas todos los huevos en una canasta”. Este es un concepto relevante porque cualquier inversión, por más segura que parezca, tiene cierto nivel de riesgo y si ponemos todos nuestros recursos en una sola, corremos el peligro de que esa inversión en particular no resulte y perdamos todos nuestros recursos.
La diversificación puede ser vista de muchas formas. Podemos diversificar por tipo de activo, zona geográfica o tipo de negocio, las opciones son infinitas. Sin embargo, para dar un ejemplo real, lo más fácil es ver el portafolio de inversiones de uno de los más grandes y reconocidos fondos del mundo: el Fondo de Inversión de la Universidad de Yale en Estados Unidos:
¿Notaste que el 14% está invertido en bienes raíces? Este tipo de inversiones también pueden ser una opción para que tú diversifiques tus inversiones y que tu patrimonio no dependa únicamente de tus inversiones en tu banco o en la bolsa.
Seguramente en este momento piensas lo complejo que es invertir en bienes raíces. Esto es porque tradicionalmente para poder invertir en un inmueble en México existían únicamente 2 maneras:
Compra directa de una propiedad: La forma más pura de invertir en bienes raíces. Se necesita una cantidad considerable de dinero para poder comprar un inmueble, haciendo que esta opción sea imposible para la mayoría de las personas. Además, invertir directo en inmuebles sin asesoría y sin el análisis adecuado puede ser riesgoso.
Compra de un certificado de una Fibra: Las Fibras (Fideicomisos de Inversión en Bienes Raíces) son un instrumento financiero que se puede comprar a través de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. Una Fibra es un portafolio de varios inmuebles que son vendidos en partes pequeñas (certificados), similar a comprar acciones en una compañía. El tener una Fibra te da acceso a un portafolio de propiedades, de las cuales recibes ingresos a través de sus rentas. Por su naturaleza son un mecanismo eficiente para hacer una inversión bien diversificada en inmuebles para renta, que además se puede hacer con un monto relativamente chico a través de cualquier casa de bolsa. Sin embargo, el precio de los certificados no siempre responde al precio de los inmuebles y a las rentas se le suelen descontar comisiones por parte del administrador del portafolio. Por lo tanto, el rendimiento termina siendo menor que invertir directo en esos inmuebles.
Entonces si es costoso y complejo invertir en bienes raíces, ¿por qué lo estamos recomendando como una forma de diversificar tus inversiones? Hace no muchos años comenzó una tendencia que está revolucionando el mundo de las inversiones en inmuebles: el crowdfunding o fondeo colectivo. El crowdfunding es la práctica de fondear un proyecto a través de la suma de pequeñas o medianas aportaciones monetarias de un gran número de personas. De esta forma, al ser aplicado en bienes raíces muchas personas se juntan para invertir en un desarrollo inmobiliario, teniendo que aportar menores cantidades de capital que si lo hicieran de forma individual. Esto abre la puerta a que personas como tú y como yo podamos contemplar a las inversiones en bienes raíces como una alternativa para diversificar y hacer crecer nuestro capital disminuyendo el riesgo.
Invertir a través de crowdfunding es muy simple, existen plataformas que facilitan esta tarea uniendo a proyectos inmobiliarios atractivos con personas que buscan diversificar sus inversiones (o incluso invertir por primera vez). Algunos ejemplos internacionales de este tipo de plataformas que han tenido mucho éxito son RealtyShares y Fundrise. En nuestro país este tipo de modelos empezaron a surgir hace pocos años y, también, han tenido una gran aceptación por parte del mercado, como Briq.mx, crowdfunding inmobiliario en México.
*Juan Carlos Castro es Socio fundador de Briq.mx. Experto en inversiones y evaluación de proyectos de bienes raíces.
Donald Trump risked provoking a diplomatic row with one of the U.S.’s closest allies, and embarrassing Prime Minister Theresa May ahead of a general election, as he amplified his mockery of London Mayor Sadiq Khan over a terrorist attack that killed seven people.
The president first went after Khan, one of Britain’s most prominent Muslims, on Sunday over the mayor’s statement that people had “no reason to be alarmed.” Khan had been referring to the increased presence of armed police on London’s streets in the wake of the attack. Trump lashed out again Monday.
“Pathetic excuse by London Mayor Sadiq Khan who had to think fast on his ‘no reason to be alarmed’ statement,” the president tweeted. Mainstream media — or MSM — “is working hard to sell it!”
Trump’s escalation, as the U.K.’s capital city returns to normal after the London Bridge attack, puts May in a difficult position in the closing stages of a tightening election race. She has already taken criticism for her decision to get as close as possible to the president, even holding his hand as the two of them walked through the White House in January.
Earlier on Monday, before the president’s latest outburst, May was pushed hard before saying he was “wrong” to attack Khan. After avoiding several attempts by reporters to get her to condemn the U.S. president, May was asked what it would take for her to criticize Trump.
‘It’s Wrong’
Instead, she reiterated her disappointment over his decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement on climate change. After some further heckling, she went further. “Sadiq Khan is doing a good job,” she told a news conference in central London. “It’s wrong to say anything else.”
Trump is due to make a state visit to London later this year as Britain tries to persuade him to sign a post-Brexit trade deal. That offer from May has already been the subject of protests. Last week Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn described the prime minister’s position as “subservience” to the president.
As well as mocking Khan, Trump sought to turn the London attacks to domestic political advantage by renewing his call to ban travel from some Muslim-majority countries, and saying the attack by a truck and knives underscored the futility of tighter gun control laws.
May’s concession on Monday that she was “not afraid to say when President Trump gets things wrong” follows her openly complaining last month about U.S. security agencies leaking details of the Manchester Arena suicide bombing, which British police said hurt their investigation.
Shortly after Saturday’s attacks and before they were confirmed as terrorist events, Trump took to Twitter to say “we need the Travel Ban as an extra level of safety.” He followed that about eight minutes later with a more conventional expression of concern: “Whatever the United States can do to help out in London and the U.K., we will be there – WE ARE WITH YOU. GOD BLESS!” His criticism of Khan came the next day.
In response to Trump’s latest tweet, a spokeswoman for Khan had this to say: “The Mayor is focused on dealing with Saturday’s horrific and cowardly attack.”
